1. 椋庨櫓綆＄悊杈呭艱祫鏂欙細娉曚漢瀹㈡埛璇勭駭妯″瀷
3. 娉曚漢瀹㈡埛璇勭駭妯″瀷
錛1錛堿ltman鐨刏璁″垎妯″瀷鍜孼ETA妯″瀷
Altman錛1968錛夎や負錛屽獎鍝嶅熸句漢榪濈害姒傜巼鐨勫洜緔犱富瑕佹湁浜斾釜錛氭祦鍔ㄦэ紙Liquidity錛夈佺泩鍒╂э紙Profitability錛夈佹潬鏉嗘瘮鐜囷紙Leverage錛夈佸伩鍊鴻兘鍔涳紙Solvency錛夊拰媧昏穬鎬э紙Activity錛夈侫ltman閫夋嫨浜嗕笅闈㈠垪涓劇殑浜斾釜璐㈠姟鎸囨爣鏉ョ患鍚堝弽鏄犱笂榪頒簲澶у洜緔狅紝鏈緇堝緱鍑虹殑Z璁″垎鍑芥暟
X1錛濓紙嫻佸姩璧勪駭錛嶆祦鍔ㄨ礋鍊猴級/鎬昏祫浜
X2錛濈暀瀛樻敹鐩/鎬昏祫浜
X3錛濇伅紼庡墠鍒╂鼎/鎬昏祫浜
X4錛濊偂紲ㄥ競鍦轟環鍊/鍊哄姟璐﹂潰浠峰
X5錛濋攢鍞棰/鎬昏祫浜
浣滀負榪濈害椋庨櫓鐨勬寚鏍囷紝Z鍊艱秺楂橈紝榪濈害姒傜巼瓚婁綆銆傛ゅ栵紝Altman榪樻彁鍑轟簡鍒ゆ柇浼佷笟鐮翠駭鐨勪復鐣屽礆細鑻Z浣庝簬1.81錛屽湪浼佷笟瀛樺湪寰堝ぇ鐨勭牬浜ч庨櫓錛屽簲琚褰掑叆楂樿繚綰﹂庨櫓絳夌駭銆
1977騫達紝Altman涓嶩ardeman銆丯arayanan鍙堟彁鍑轟簡絎浜屼唬Z璁″垎妯″瀷鈥斺擹ETA淇＄敤椋庨櫓鍒嗘瀽妯″瀷錛屼富瑕佺敤浜庡叕鍏辨垨縐佹湁鐨勯潪閲戣瀺綾誨叕鍙革紝鍏墮傚簲鑼冨洿鏇村箍錛屽硅繚綰︽傜巼鐨勮＄畻鏇寸簿紜銆
ZETA妯″瀷灝嗘ā鍨嬭冨療鎸囨爣鐢變簲涓澧炲姞鍒頒竷涓錛屽垎鍒涓猴細
X1錛氳祫浜ф敹鐩婄巼鎸囨爣錛岀瓑浜庢伅紼庡墠鍒╂鼎/鎬昏祫浜с
X2錛氭敹鐩婄ǔ瀹氭ф寚鏍囷紝鎸囦紒涓氳祫浜ф敹鐩婄巼鍦5鍀10騫村彉鍔ㄨ秼鍔跨殑鏍囧噯宸銆
X3錛氬伩鍊鴻兘鍔涙寚鏍囷紝絳変簬鎮紼庡墠鍒╂鼎/鎬誨埄鎮鏀鍑恆
X4錛氱泩鍒╃Н緔鑳藉姏鎸囨爣錛岀瓑浜庣暀瀛樻敹鐩/鎬昏祫浜с
X5錛氭祦鍔ㄦф寚鏍囷紝鍗蟲祦鍔ㄦ瘮鐜囷紝絳変簬嫻佸姩璧勪駭/嫻佸姩璐熷恆
X6錛氳祫鏈鍖栫▼搴︽寚鏍囷紝絳変簬鏅閫氳偂/鎬昏祫鏈銆傝ユ瘮鐜囪秺澶э紝璇存槑浼佷笟璧勬湰瀹炲姏瓚婂己錛岃繚綰︽傜巼瓚婂皬銆
X7錛氳勬ā鎸囨爣錛岀敤浼佷笟鎬昏祫浜х殑瀵規暟琛ㄧず銆
錛2錛塕iskCalc妯″瀷
RiskCalc妯″瀷鏄鍦ㄤ紶緇熶俊鐢ㄨ瘎鍒嗘妧鏈鍩虹涓婂彂灞曡搗鏉ョ殑涓縐嶉傜敤浜庨潪涓婂競鍏鍙哥殑榪濈害姒傜巼妯″瀷錛屽叾鏍稿績鏄閫氳繃涓ユ牸鐨勬ラや粠瀹㈡埛淇℃伅涓閫夋嫨鍑烘渶鑳介勬祴榪濈害鐨勪竴緇勫彉閲忥紝緇忚繃閫傚綋鍙樻崲鍚庤繍鐢↙ogit/Probit鍥炲綊鎶鏈棰勬祴瀹㈡埛鐨勮繚綰︽傜巼銆
鈶犳敹闆嗗ぇ閲忕殑鍏鍙告暟鎹錛
鈶″規暟鎹榪涜屾牱鏈閫夋嫨鍜屽紓甯稿煎勭悊錛
鈶㈤愪竴鍒嗘瀽鍙樻崲鍚勯庨櫓鍥犵礌鐨勫崟璋冩с佽繚綰﹂勬祴鑳藉姏鍙婂郊姝ら棿鐨勭浉鍏蟲э紝鍒濇ラ夋嫨鍑鴻繚綰﹂勬祴鑳藉姏寮恆佸郊姝ょ浉鍏蟲т笉楂樼殑20鍀30涓椋庨櫓鍥犵礌錛
鈶ｈ繍鐢↙ogit/Probit鍥炲綊鎶鏈浠庡垵姝ュ洜緔犱腑閫夋嫨鍑9鍀11涓鐨勯庨櫓鍥犵礌錛屽苟紜淇濆洖褰掔郴鏁板叿鏈夋槑紜鐨勭粡嫻庡惈涔夛紝鍚勫彉閲忛棿涓嶅瓨鍦ㄥ氶噸鍏辯嚎鎬э紱
鈶ゅ湪寤烘ā澶栨牱鏈銆佹椂孌靛栨牱鏈涓楠岃瘉鍩轟簬寤烘ā鏍鋒湰鎵鏋勫緩妯″瀷鐨勮繚綰﹀尯鍒嗚兘鍔涳紝紜淇濇ā鍨嬬殑妯鍚戦傜敤鎬у拰綰靛悜鍓嶇灮鎬э紱
鈶ュ規ā鍨嬭緭鍑虹粨鏋滆繘琛屾牎姝ｏ紝寰楀埌鏈緇堝悇瀹㈡埛鐨勮繚綰︽傜巼銆
錛3錛塁redit Monitor妯″瀷
Credit Monitor妯″瀷鏄鍦∕erton妯″瀷鍩虹涓婂彂灞曡搗鏉ョ殑涓縐嶉傜敤浜庝笂甯傚叕鍙哥殑榪濈害姒傜巼妯″瀷錛屽叾鏍稿績鍦ㄤ簬鎶婁紒涓氫笌閾惰岀殑鍊熻捶鍏崇郴瑙嗕負鏈熸潈涔板崠鍏崇郴錛屽熻捶鍏崇郴涓鐨勪俊鐢ㄩ庨櫓淇℃伅鍥犳ら殣鍚鍦ㄨ繖縐嶆湡鏉冧氦鏄撲箣涓錛屼粠鑰岄氳繃搴旂敤鏈熸潈瀹氫環鐞嗚烘眰瑙ｅ嚭淇＄敤椋庨櫓婧浠峰拰鐩稿簲鐨勮繚綰︾巼錛屽嵆棰勬湡榪濈害棰戠巼錛圗xpected Default Frequency錛孍DF錛夈
銆愬崟閫夈戝湪娉曚漢瀹㈡埛璇勭駭妯″瀷涓錛岋紙 錛夐氳繃搴旂敤鏈熸潈瀹氫環鐞嗚烘眰瑙ｅ嚭淇＄敤椋庨櫓婧浠峰拰鐩稿簲鐨勮繚綰︾巼銆
A錛嶢ltman Z璁″垎妯″瀷
B錛嶳iskCalc妯″瀷
C錛嶤redit Monitor妯″瀷
D錛庢諱骸鐜囨ā鍨
絳旀堬細C
錛4錛塊PMG椋庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠鋒ā鍨
椋庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠風悊璁虹殑鏍稿績鎬濇兂鏄鍋囪鵑噾鋙嶅競鍦轟腑鐨勬瘡涓鍙備笌鑰呴兘鏄椋庨櫓涓絝嬭咃紝涓嶇℃槸楂橀庨櫓璧勪駭銆佷綆椋庨櫓璧勪駭鎴栨棤椋庨櫓璧勪駭錛屽彧瑕佽祫浜х殑鏈熸湜鏀剁泭鏄鐩哥瓑鐨勶紝甯傚満鍙備笌鑰呭瑰叾鐨勬佸害灝辨槸涓鑷寸殑錛岃繖鏍風殑甯傚満鐜澧冭縐頒負椋庨櫓涓鎬ц寖寮忋侹PMG鍏鍙稿皢椋庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠風悊璁鴻繍鐢ㄥ埌璐鋒炬垨鍊哄埜鐨勮繚綰︽傜巼璁＄畻涓錛岀敱浜庡哄埜甯傚満鍙浠ユ彁渚涗笌涓嶅悓淇＄敤絳夌駭鐩稿瑰簲鐨勯庨櫓婧浠鳳紝鏍規嵁鏈熸湜鏀剁泭鐩哥瓑鐨勯庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠峰師鍒欙紝姣忎竴絎旇捶嬈炬垨鍊哄埜鐨勮繚綰︽傜巼灝卞彲浠ョ浉搴旇＄畻鍑烘潵銆
銆愬崟閫夈戞煇涓騫存湡闆舵伅鍊哄埜鐨勫勾鏀剁泭鐜囦負16.7錛咃紝鍋囪懼哄姟浜鴻繚綰﹀悗錛屽洖鏀剁巼涓洪浂錛岃嫢涓騫存湡鐨勬棤椋庨櫓騫存敹鐩婄巼涓5錛咃紝鍒欐牴鎹甂PMG椋庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠鋒ā鍨嬪緱鍒頒笂榪板哄埜鍦ㄤ竴騫村唴鐨勮繚綰︽傜巼涓猴紙 錛
A錛0.05
B錛0.10
C錛0.15
D錛0.20
絳旀堬細B
錛5錛夋諱骸鐜囨ā鍨
姝諱骸鐜囨ā鍨嬫槸鏍規嵁璐鋒炬垨鍊哄埜鐨勫巻鍙茶繚綰︽暟鎹錛岃＄畻鍦ㄦ湭鏉ヤ竴瀹氭寔鏈夋湡鍐呬笉鍚屼俊鐢ㄧ瓑綰х殑璐鋒炬垨鍊哄埜鐨勮繚綰︽傜巼錛屽嵆姝諱骸鐜囷紝閫氬父鍒嗕負杈歸檯姝諱骸鐜囷紙Marginal Mortality Rate錛孧MR錛夊拰緔璁℃諱骸鐜囷紙Cumulated Mortality Rate錛孋MR錛夈
銆愬崟閫夈戞牴鎹姝諱骸鐜囨ā鍨嬶紝鍋囪炬煇3騫存湡杈涜開鍔犺捶嬈撅紝浠庣1騫磋嚦絎3騫存瘡騫寸殑杈歸檯姝諱骸鐜囦緷嬈′負0.17錛呫0.60錛呫0.60錛咃紝鍒3騫寸殑緔璁℃諱骸鐜囦負錛 錛夈
A錛0.17錛
B錛0.77錛
C錛1.36錛
D錛2.32錛
絳旀堬細C
2. 澶忔櫘ZETA SH-06E鐨勪駭鍝佺壒鐐
姝ゅ栵紝璇ユ満榪樺叿澶囦笁闃插姛鑳斤紝鏀鎸丯TT DoCoMo鐨刋i LTE緗戠粶錛堜笅杞芥渶蹇100Mbps銆佷笂杞 37.5Mbps錛夈係H-06E鍦2013騫5鏈24鏃ヤ笂甯傦紝鑰孲H-08E鏈蹇浼氬湪7鏈堝紑鍗栥
澶忔櫘鏂版満ZETA SH-06閲囩敤IGZO闈㈡澘錛屼篃鏄鍏ㄧ悆棣栨鵑噰鐢↖GZO灞忓箷鐨勫叏楂樻竻灞忔墜鏈恆傚煎緱瀹ｆ壃鐨勪竴鐐規槸澶忔櫘SH-06E鏈夎秴闀跨殑寰呮満鏃墮棿錛屽叾寰呮満鏃墮棿鍙浠ヨ揪鍒頒簡48灝忔椂錛岃繖涓鐐瑰逛簬涓嬈460PPI鐨勫ぇ灞忓箷鎵嬫満鏉ヨ達紝宸茬粡鏄闅捐兘鍙璐典簡銆傜洰鍓嶈繕涓嶆竻妤氳ユ満鏄鍚︿細鐧誨綍鍏朵粬鍥藉跺競鍦恆
