1. 椋庨櫓绠＄悊杈呭艰祫鏂欙細娉曚汉瀹㈡埛璇勭骇妯″瀷
3. 娉曚汉瀹㈡埛璇勭骇妯″瀷
锛1锛堿ltman鐨刏璁″垎妯″瀷鍜孼ETA妯″瀷
Altman锛1968锛夎や负锛屽奖鍝嶅熸句汉杩濈害姒傜巼鐨勫洜绱犱富瑕佹湁浜斾釜锛氭祦鍔ㄦэ紙Liquidity锛夈佺泩鍒╂э紙Profitability锛夈佹潬鏉嗘瘮鐜囷紙Leverage锛夈佸伩鍊鸿兘鍔涳紙Solvency锛夊拰娲昏穬鎬э紙Activity锛夈侫ltman閫夋嫨浜嗕笅闈㈠垪涓剧殑浜斾釜璐㈠姟鎸囨爣鏉ョ患鍚堝弽鏄犱笂杩颁簲澶у洜绱狅紝鏈缁堝緱鍑虹殑Z璁″垎鍑芥暟
X1锛濓紙娴佸姩璧勪骇锛嶆祦鍔ㄨ礋鍊猴級/鎬昏祫浜
X2锛濈暀瀛樻敹鐩/鎬昏祫浜
X3锛濇伅绋庡墠鍒╂鼎/鎬昏祫浜
X4锛濊偂绁ㄥ競鍦轰环鍊/鍊哄姟璐﹂潰浠峰
X5锛濋攢鍞棰/鎬昏祫浜
浣滀负杩濈害椋庨櫓鐨勬寚鏍囷紝Z鍊艰秺楂橈紝杩濈害姒傜巼瓒婁綆銆傛ゅ栵紝Altman杩樻彁鍑轰簡鍒ゆ柇浼佷笟鐮翠骇鐨勪复鐣屽硷細鑻Z浣庝簬1.81锛屽湪浼佷笟瀛樺湪寰堝ぇ鐨勭牬浜ч庨櫓锛屽簲琚褰掑叆楂樿繚绾﹂庨櫓绛夌骇銆
1977骞达紝Altman涓嶩ardeman銆丯arayanan鍙堟彁鍑轰簡绗浜屼唬Z璁″垎妯″瀷鈥斺擹ETA淇＄敤椋庨櫓鍒嗘瀽妯″瀷锛屼富瑕佺敤浜庡叕鍏辨垨绉佹湁鐨勯潪閲戣瀺绫诲叕鍙革紝鍏堕傚簲鑼冨洿鏇村箍锛屽硅繚绾︽傜巼鐨勮＄畻鏇寸簿纭銆
ZETA妯″瀷灏嗘ā鍨嬭冨療鎸囨爣鐢变簲涓澧炲姞鍒颁竷涓锛屽垎鍒涓猴細
X1锛氳祫浜ф敹鐩婄巼鎸囨爣锛岀瓑浜庢伅绋庡墠鍒╂鼎/鎬昏祫浜с
X2锛氭敹鐩婄ǔ瀹氭ф寚鏍囷紝鎸囦紒涓氳祫浜ф敹鐩婄巼鍦5锝10骞村彉鍔ㄨ秼鍔跨殑鏍囧噯宸銆
X3锛氬伩鍊鸿兘鍔涙寚鏍囷紝绛変簬鎭绋庡墠鍒╂鼎/鎬诲埄鎭鏀鍑恒
X4锛氱泩鍒╃Н绱鑳藉姏鎸囨爣锛岀瓑浜庣暀瀛樻敹鐩/鎬昏祫浜с
X5锛氭祦鍔ㄦф寚鏍囷紝鍗虫祦鍔ㄦ瘮鐜囷紝绛変簬娴佸姩璧勪骇/娴佸姩璐熷恒
X6锛氳祫鏈鍖栫▼搴︽寚鏍囷紝绛変簬鏅閫氳偂/鎬昏祫鏈銆傝ユ瘮鐜囪秺澶э紝璇存槑浼佷笟璧勬湰瀹炲姏瓒婂己锛岃繚绾︽傜巼瓒婂皬銆
X7锛氳勬ā鎸囨爣锛岀敤浼佷笟鎬昏祫浜х殑瀵规暟琛ㄧず銆
锛2锛塕iskCalc妯″瀷
RiskCalc妯″瀷鏄鍦ㄤ紶缁熶俊鐢ㄨ瘎鍒嗘妧鏈鍩虹涓婂彂灞曡捣鏉ョ殑涓绉嶉傜敤浜庨潪涓婂競鍏鍙哥殑杩濈害姒傜巼妯″瀷锛屽叾鏍稿績鏄閫氳繃涓ユ牸鐨勬ラや粠瀹㈡埛淇℃伅涓閫夋嫨鍑烘渶鑳介勬祴杩濈害鐨勪竴缁勫彉閲忥紝缁忚繃閫傚綋鍙樻崲鍚庤繍鐢↙ogit/Probit鍥炲綊鎶鏈棰勬祴瀹㈡埛鐨勮繚绾︽傜巼銆
鈶犳敹闆嗗ぇ閲忕殑鍏鍙告暟鎹锛
鈶″规暟鎹杩涜屾牱鏈閫夋嫨鍜屽紓甯稿煎勭悊锛
鈶㈤愪竴鍒嗘瀽鍙樻崲鍚勯庨櫓鍥犵礌鐨勫崟璋冩с佽繚绾﹂勬祴鑳藉姏鍙婂郊姝ら棿鐨勭浉鍏虫э紝鍒濇ラ夋嫨鍑鸿繚绾﹂勬祴鑳藉姏寮恒佸郊姝ょ浉鍏虫т笉楂樼殑20锝30涓椋庨櫓鍥犵礌锛
鈶ｈ繍鐢↙ogit/Probit鍥炲綊鎶鏈浠庡垵姝ュ洜绱犱腑閫夋嫨鍑9锝11涓鐨勯庨櫓鍥犵礌锛屽苟纭淇濆洖褰掔郴鏁板叿鏈夋槑纭鐨勭粡娴庡惈涔夛紝鍚勫彉閲忛棿涓嶅瓨鍦ㄥ氶噸鍏辩嚎鎬э紱
鈶ゅ湪寤烘ā澶栨牱鏈銆佹椂娈靛栨牱鏈涓楠岃瘉鍩轰簬寤烘ā鏍锋湰鎵鏋勫缓妯″瀷鐨勮繚绾﹀尯鍒嗚兘鍔涳紝纭淇濇ā鍨嬬殑妯鍚戦傜敤鎬у拰绾靛悜鍓嶇灮鎬э紱
鈶ュ规ā鍨嬭緭鍑虹粨鏋滆繘琛屾牎姝ｏ紝寰楀埌鏈缁堝悇瀹㈡埛鐨勮繚绾︽傜巼銆
锛3锛塁redit Monitor妯″瀷
Credit Monitor妯″瀷鏄鍦∕erton妯″瀷鍩虹涓婂彂灞曡捣鏉ョ殑涓绉嶉傜敤浜庝笂甯傚叕鍙哥殑杩濈害姒傜巼妯″瀷锛屽叾鏍稿績鍦ㄤ簬鎶婁紒涓氫笌閾惰岀殑鍊熻捶鍏崇郴瑙嗕负鏈熸潈涔板崠鍏崇郴锛屽熻捶鍏崇郴涓鐨勪俊鐢ㄩ庨櫓淇℃伅鍥犳ら殣鍚鍦ㄨ繖绉嶆湡鏉冧氦鏄撲箣涓锛屼粠鑰岄氳繃搴旂敤鏈熸潈瀹氫环鐞嗚烘眰瑙ｅ嚭淇＄敤椋庨櫓婧浠峰拰鐩稿簲鐨勮繚绾︾巼锛屽嵆棰勬湡杩濈害棰戠巼锛圗xpected Default Frequency锛孍DF锛夈
銆愬崟閫夈戝湪娉曚汉瀹㈡埛璇勭骇妯″瀷涓锛岋紙 锛夐氳繃搴旂敤鏈熸潈瀹氫环鐞嗚烘眰瑙ｅ嚭淇＄敤椋庨櫓婧浠峰拰鐩稿簲鐨勮繚绾︾巼銆
A锛嶢ltman Z璁″垎妯″瀷
B锛嶳iskCalc妯″瀷
C锛嶤redit Monitor妯″瀷
D锛庢讳骸鐜囨ā鍨
绛旀堬細C
锛4锛塊PMG椋庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠锋ā鍨
椋庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠风悊璁虹殑鏍稿績鎬濇兂鏄鍋囪鹃噾铻嶅競鍦轰腑鐨勬瘡涓鍙備笌鑰呴兘鏄椋庨櫓涓绔嬭咃紝涓嶇℃槸楂橀庨櫓璧勪骇銆佷綆椋庨櫓璧勪骇鎴栨棤椋庨櫓璧勪骇锛屽彧瑕佽祫浜х殑鏈熸湜鏀剁泭鏄鐩哥瓑鐨勶紝甯傚満鍙備笌鑰呭瑰叾鐨勬佸害灏辨槸涓鑷寸殑锛岃繖鏍风殑甯傚満鐜澧冭绉颁负椋庨櫓涓鎬ц寖寮忋侹PMG鍏鍙稿皢椋庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠风悊璁鸿繍鐢ㄥ埌璐锋炬垨鍊哄埜鐨勮繚绾︽傜巼璁＄畻涓锛岀敱浜庡哄埜甯傚満鍙浠ユ彁渚涗笌涓嶅悓淇＄敤绛夌骇鐩稿瑰簲鐨勯庨櫓婧浠凤紝鏍规嵁鏈熸湜鏀剁泭鐩哥瓑鐨勯庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠峰師鍒欙紝姣忎竴绗旇捶娆炬垨鍊哄埜鐨勮繚绾︽傜巼灏卞彲浠ョ浉搴旇＄畻鍑烘潵銆
銆愬崟閫夈戞煇涓骞存湡闆舵伅鍊哄埜鐨勫勾鏀剁泭鐜囦负16.7锛咃紝鍋囪惧哄姟浜鸿繚绾﹀悗锛屽洖鏀剁巼涓洪浂锛岃嫢涓骞存湡鐨勬棤椋庨櫓骞存敹鐩婄巼涓5锛咃紝鍒欐牴鎹甂PMG椋庨櫓涓鎬у畾浠锋ā鍨嬪緱鍒颁笂杩板哄埜鍦ㄤ竴骞村唴鐨勮繚绾︽傜巼涓猴紙 锛
A锛0.05
B锛0.10
C锛0.15
D锛0.20
绛旀堬細B
锛5锛夋讳骸鐜囨ā鍨
姝讳骸鐜囨ā鍨嬫槸鏍规嵁璐锋炬垨鍊哄埜鐨勫巻鍙茶繚绾︽暟鎹锛岃＄畻鍦ㄦ湭鏉ヤ竴瀹氭寔鏈夋湡鍐呬笉鍚屼俊鐢ㄧ瓑绾х殑璐锋炬垨鍊哄埜鐨勮繚绾︽傜巼锛屽嵆姝讳骸鐜囷紝閫氬父鍒嗕负杈归檯姝讳骸鐜囷紙Marginal Mortality Rate锛孧MR锛夊拰绱璁℃讳骸鐜囷紙Cumulated Mortality Rate锛孋MR锛夈
銆愬崟閫夈戞牴鎹姝讳骸鐜囨ā鍨嬶紝鍋囪炬煇3骞存湡杈涜开鍔犺捶娆撅紝浠庣1骞磋嚦绗3骞存瘡骞寸殑杈归檯姝讳骸鐜囦緷娆′负0.17锛呫0.60锛呫0.60锛咃紝鍒3骞寸殑绱璁℃讳骸鐜囦负锛 锛夈
A锛0.17锛
B锛0.77锛
C锛1.36锛
D锛2.32锛
绛旀堬細C
2. 澶忔櫘ZETA SH-06E鐨勪骇鍝佺壒鐐
姝ゅ栵紝璇ユ満杩樺叿澶囦笁闃插姛鑳斤紝鏀鎸丯TT DoCoMo鐨刋i LTE缃戠粶锛堜笅杞芥渶蹇100Mbps銆佷笂杞 37.5Mbps锛夈係H-06E鍦2013骞5鏈24鏃ヤ笂甯傦紝鑰孲H-08E鏈蹇浼氬湪7鏈堝紑鍗栥
澶忔櫘鏂版満ZETA SH-06閲囩敤IGZO闈㈡澘锛屼篃鏄鍏ㄧ悆棣栨鹃噰鐢↖GZO灞忓箷鐨勫叏楂樻竻灞忔墜鏈恒傚煎緱瀹ｆ壃鐨勪竴鐐规槸澶忔櫘SH-06E鏈夎秴闀跨殑寰呮満鏃堕棿锛屽叾寰呮満鏃堕棿鍙浠ヨ揪鍒颁簡48灏忔椂锛岃繖涓鐐瑰逛簬涓娆460PPI鐨勫ぇ灞忓箷鎵嬫満鏉ヨ达紝宸茬粡鏄闅捐兘鍙璐典簡銆傜洰鍓嶈繕涓嶆竻妤氳ユ満鏄鍚︿細鐧诲綍鍏朵粬鍥藉跺競鍦恒
